Saturday, January 12, 2008

Obama didn't lose NH because of closet racists

As much as it's become conventional wisdom, I don't buy it. Barack Obama didn't lose the New Hampshire Democratic Primary because voters were making their last-minute decisions based on race. I think he lost primarily because a disproportionate number of independent male voters, figuring that Obama's victory was all but assured, decided to vote for McCain in the GOP primary instead.

The so-called Bradley effect—the theory that once white voters get into the privacy of the voting booth, they have second thoughts about the black candidate they told pollsters they'd support—just wasn't at play here. The New Republic recently debunked this myth, thankfully.

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